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Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
On Programmer » Python
64,848 words with 22 Comments; publish: Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:21:00 GMT; (200109.38, « »)
PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
Posted July 11, 2005
My main earthquake forecasting Web page is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
Newsgroup Readers: If you circulate copies of this report to groups of
computer programmers at different universities etc. around the world then
they might find the subject matter to be interesting.
The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.
THE GOAL OF THIS REPORT
This is part of an effort to get some idea regarding how many
computer programmers and other researchers around the world might be
interested in participating in a project aimed at developing life saving
earthquake forecasting computer programs.
That effort is not presently underway. And I don't know when or if
it will get started. I am simply attempting to determine if other people
believe that large numbers of volunteers would be interested in working on
such a project or if there would instead be little interest in it. That
information would be helpful for developing a plan for establishing a Web
site where the project would be centered. Personnel running the following
Web site have volunteered to make their site available for such an effort.
But nothing has gotten underway so far.
http://www.ictwhoiswho.net/comprend/index.cfm
If quite a few people were interested in such a Web site based
computer program development effort then after it got started work would
undoubtedly progress quite rapidly. If only a few were interested then it
might never get started. If you would like to express an opinion on the
likelihood of people being interested in the idea then you can try posting a
note in response to this one. The sci.geo.earthquakes or comp.lang.misc
newsgroups might be appropriate if you wish to post to just one newsgroup.
Of you can try contacting me by e-mail.
THE CORE OF THE PRESENT EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM
In connection with an earthquake forecasting effort which has been
underway for the past 15 years I believe I have been able to crack the
"Earthquake Code." That means making crucially important discoveries
regarding how earthquakes are being triggered. Two of them which are
discussed on the following Web page are called the "Gravity Point" and
"Earthquake Triggering Symmetry."
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html
The earthquake triggering and forecasting theories and data on that
Web page were discussed on my behalf by one of my research colleagues in the
People's Republic of China at a disaster mitigation conference in that
country in December of 2003. Governments and disaster mitigation groups
around the world were told about the Web site earlier this year. And my Web
site visitor counter indicates that some 100 to 200 people around the world
are presently downloading information from the site each day.
My earthquake forecasting computer programs use those Gravity Point
and Earthquake Triggering Symmetry discoveries and others to compare
electromagnetic energy field fluctuation type signals (EM signals) with more
than 30,000 earthquakes which occurred since the beginning of 1990. Some
100 to 200 signals detected during a 3 month period of time are involved.
For some as yet unknown reason they are often highly selective for
earthquakes which are likely to occur near populated areas, making them
unusually valuable. The earthquake which is the best match with all of
those signals is rated # 1. The worst match would have a rating number
greater than 30,000. A listing of more than 100 of the best matches is then
posted perhaps once a week to the following Web page:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
For a recent example of how well that approach to forecasting
earthquakes can work, data displayed on that Web page on June 27, 2005 gave
the following earthquake a # 3 rating (possible rating range: 1 to 30,000+):
2005/01/11 19:19:48 11.40N 86.51W 40.7 5.0 Near the Coast of Nicaragua
(U.S. National Earthquake Information Service data)
And less than a week later on July 2, 2005 the following powerful and
strongly felt earthquake occurred:
2005/07/02 02:16:46 11.18N 86.40W 45.5 6.7 Near the Coast of Nicaragua
11.40N and 86.51W versus
11.18N and 86.40W
Pretty good accuracy for a forecasting program!
That earthquake was reportedly strongly felt in Managua. Had it
occurred directly beneath the city and near the surface then I expect that
it would have been devastating.
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
Basically, more sophisticated data processing and data display
computer program subroutines need to be developed. They could be built on
my already existing computer programs and data. People would develop new
subroutines, give them a try, and see if they did a better job of
determining or displaying where an earthquake might be about to occur. The
subroutines could be stored at the proposed Web site. Ones that were
especially helpful could be merged into the main program one version of
which might run as a CGI program at the Web site. Other versions of the
programs would be downloadable for free for use on personal computers.
The basic form of the data processing routine for my existing program
and probably many other earthquake forecasting programs might be expressed
in the following manner:
Prob = aA + bB + cC + dD + eE + ...
"Prob" is the probability that an earthquake of a given magnitude will occur
at a specific latitude, longitude, depth, and time.
A, B, C, D, and E . are things such as:
A - the gradual buildup of strain in a fault zone due to the movement of
the Earth's tectonic plates relative to one another
B - temporary strain added to the fault zone by bending, stretching, and
compression forces related to the Solid Earth Tide. (The ground shifts a
little in response to the sun and moon gravities just as ocean water does -
hence the Solid Earth Tide)
C - temporary strain added to the fault zone by the weight of ocean water
shifting from one location to another in connection with ocean tides
a, b, c, d, and e .. are "weight" factors which specify how important A, B,
and C etc. are at different points in time.
"A," the gradual buildup of strain in a fault zone related to
tectonic plate movement etc. is undoubtedly the most important factor and
perhaps the only one which scientists around the world are in agreement on.
It can probably be determined with a certain amount of accuracy for some
fault zones at the present time, but not too many. With my present computer
programs I do not use actual values for "A" as they would be impossible to
determine. Instead when a strong EM signal is detected I simply assume that
a fault zone somewhere has stored enough strain energy that it is about
ready to fracture. And an effort is made to determine where it is located.
With each probability calculation my present computer programs do
about 30 separate comparisons between each of the 100 to 200 EM signals and
the more than 30,000 earthquakes in my database file. The comparisons
involve things such as the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky and
the locations of ocean and Solid Earth Tide crests and troughs around the
world when the EM signal was detected and when the earthquake occurred.
For an example of one possible and relatively easy computer program
improvement, an effort could be made to see if factoring in earthquake fault
zone orientation - north and south versus east and west - improved the
probability calculations. Another improvement would involve determining the
importance of the latitudes of the Gravity Points and the sublunar points.
At the present time only their longitudes are used in my calculations. (The
sublunar point is the location on the surface of the Earth which a line
drawn between the center of the Earth and the center of the moon would pass
through.)
An earthquake forecasting group at Madras University in India has
already developed some advanced earthquake location determination routines
which it appears might be helpful to this effort. Routines developed for
use at the following Web sites might also be helpful.
http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step/
http://www-aig.jpl.nasa.gov/public/dus/quakesim/
THE PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE IN PRESENT USE
The original programs were written in a number of languages including
Basic. The main program is presently written in Perl. That language was
chosen because it is fast and powerful, the compiler can be downloaded for
free by anyone, and because it looks like it is getting sufficient support
that calculations can be trusted and it will be around for a while. There
is another feature of that language which I am guessing many other
programming languages probably presently offer though that was not the case
in the past. That is the ability to make changes to the program code itself
at the same time that the program is running.
I myself do that in the following manner:
Ordinarily the main program "P1" starts running and performs a group
of calculations. That takes about 5 minutes. It then waits for a keyboard
instruction telling it how the output data should be displayed. As with
probably any program, once it is running in the normal mode no changes can
be made to the program itself. However when it is run in the following
experimental mode that rule does not apply.
A short program I will call "P2" starts running and immediately uses
a "do" statement to get the regular program P1 to compile and start running.
P1 does the original calculations like normal. But instead of waiting for
the operator to enter a data display command it exits and P2 becomes active
again. A display instruction is entered and P1 is told to recompile and
start running again. Instead of doing all of the calculations from scratch
it jumps strait to the display routine and uses the entered command to begin
printing the output data. The data generated when it originally did the
calculations are still in memory.
The advantage here is that at any time, program P1 can be called into
a text editor, modified as desired, and then saved. A new display
subroutine can be added to it or an existing routine can be modified while
the previously generated data are still active in the computer. Then when
P1 is directed by P2 to recompile (that takes about a second) and run, the
new subroutine is included just as if it were in the original program. If
the compiler encounters a programming error it terminates and returns
control to program P2. A correction can then be made to the new program
code and the sequence repeated. No data are lost because of the error. And
you don't have to wait for 5 minutes while the program recalculates
everything.
Data processing and display routines could be written with other
programming languages besides Perl. If done with sufficient care more than
one language could be used at the same time. The different language
routines would simply be linked with one another.
A LIFE SAVING EFFORT
It appears to me (sadly) that few governments have a very good sense
of direction with regard to the development of life saving earthquake
forecasting programs. The work is usually undertaken by independent
research groups at various government agencies or universities. They go
their own ways, uninterested in or unable to work with one another to
effectively forecast deadly earthquakes. They often claim that if they
share information then they could lose their patent rights and potential
profits etc. And that could actually happen. But isn't saving tens of
thousands of lives more important than simply making a meager profit (which
no one that I am aware of is presently able to do with their forecasting
programs anyway)?
I myself presently own 3 U.S. copyrights related to my forecasting
technology. But I have been letting interested parties around the world use
it for free. See:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html
One country where forecasting program information is shared to some
extent is the People's Republic of China were some 10,000 people reportedly
work full-time in a state sponsored earthquake forecasting program. They
are also supported by a small army of volunteer workers. But even there the
forecasting efforts of different groups are not effectively coordinated very
often from what I can see. And advanced forecasting technology being
developed in other countries is frequently ignored.
A listing of some other earthquake forecasting programs around the
world can be found on the following Web page:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/141.html
A book discussing one of the forecasting programs listed on that Web
page is scheduled for release some time in late 2005. See:
http://www.sentientpublications.com...earthquakes.php
I myself assisted with that effort by providing the author with some
free technical information and book content advice.
The proposed Internet Web site effort to develop an effective
earthquake forecasting program discussed in this present report could not be
ignored by governments around the world. Once they saw how well the
programs worked then they would be forced to begin using them to predict
their own earthquakes.
United Nations personnel appeared to like this concept when I
formally proposed it to them in July of 2004.
http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr-dialogue/t3-dialogue.htm#34
And they discussed it repeatedly in their summary reports of the
ideas proposed during that Internet Web site based conference. But no
governments or disaster mitigation groups expressed any interest in
developing the concept.
Since the starting point for the proposed forecasting program
development efforts would be the computer programs that I already have
running, success would be guaranteed.
So, the important question would then be,
"How many computer programmers and other researchers would be interested in
helping with such an effort?"
This type of work is quite interesting and exciting when you become
actively involved with it. You can generate a forecast. And then when the
earthquake occurs where you expected you can get a pretty good shock. If
the earthquake is also destructive the experience can be rather frightening.
The importance of the work should be obvious. More than a quarter of
million people reportedly perished in connection with the December 26, 2004
earthquake generated tsunami (tidal wave) in the Indian Ocean. My present
forecasting computer programs did not become operational until several weeks
after it occurred. But when I ran my EM signal data from around that time
through the programs the results indicated to me that the earthquake could
have been predicted.
Why devote valuable free time to developing computer programs which
do ordinary things when that time could be devoted to developing programs
which might eventually help save tens or even hundreds of thousands of
lives?
http://python.itags.org/q_python_23415.html
All Comments
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- 22 Comments
- "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> it jumps strait to the display routine and uses the entered command to
begin
Should be the word "straight" instead of strait.
#1; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:22:00 GMT
- "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> Posted July 11, 2005
The first posting in this series should have provided computer
programming groups around the world with a good understanding of what is
involved with this earthquake forecasting research effort. And I am not
planning to add too many additional comments unless someone posts a response
to the first report. However, a shorter summary report is being posted to a
number of other newsgroups such as sci.geo.geology pointing interested
parties to that first report. To see that summary report you can try
visiting the sci.geo.earthquakes or alt.disasters.misc newsgroups. It
briefly discusses two dramatically different approaches to doing scientific
research.
#2; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:23:00 GMT
- "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:upBAe.1915$oZ.930.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
>> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
>> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
>> it jumps strait to the display routine and uses the entered command to
> begin
> Should be the word "straight" instead of strait.
What observational data are used?
What are the sources of that observational data?
How are those sources accessed?
Is there a database to hold historical plus current data?
If so, is it centralized or distributed?
The project might be of interest if the data sources are
rich enough, complete enough, and current enough.
--
... Hank
http://home.earthlink.net/~horedson
http://home.earthlink.net/~w0rli
#3; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:24:00 GMT
- "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:7%UAe.4148$BK1.174.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.pas.earthli nk.net...
> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> news:upBAe.1915$oZ.930.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
> > "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> > news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
> >> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> >> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> What observational data are used?
> What are the sources of that observational data?
> How are those sources accessed?
> Is there a database to hold historical plus current data?
> If so, is it centralized or distributed?
> The project might be of interest if the data sources are
> rich enough, complete enough, and current enough.
July 12, 2005
Thanks for the response and questions.
The following are my personal opinions on this.
Briefly, the amount of data available for this type of effort is
virtually limitless. And more of those data than most people could even
deal with can be obtained for free.
You don't have to build a new laboratory filled with expensive equipment.
A reasonably powerful computer,
Access to the Internet,
At least some knowledge of science
Some computer programming ability
And a little imagination
Are all that are required.
Researchers have been attempting to do this type of work for probably
as far back as we have historical records. The reason that previous efforts
that I am aware of have not been successful is because two key discoveries
needed to be made. They are referred to on my 90-05.html Web page as the
"Gravity Point" and "Earthquake Triggering Symmetry." Now that those
discoveries have been made the door should be open to tremendously rapid
advances in our understanding of how and why earthquakes occur and how to
forecast them.
Much of this research could be easily done by computer programmers.
You don't need to be a geophysicist. If the data you are generating look
statistically significant then they are probably important whether or not
you actually understand the geophysical theories behind them.
To actually forecast earthquakes using the procedure I have developed
you need both warning signal data and earthquake data along with some ocean
tide and Solid Earth Tide data. But one of the really great parts of this
particular research project is the fact that many of the basic discoveries
can be made by simply comparing earthquakes with one another. You don't
need any warning signal data at all. And there is certainly no shortage of
earthquake data!
At my Web site there is a discussion of a concept called "Earthquake
Pairs." They are two or more earthquakes which were apparently triggered in
the same manner. My data indicate that the two highly destructive 1998
earthquakes in Afghanistan would represent an Earthquake Pair. And the two
highly destructive 1999 earthquakes in Turkey would represent another pair.
Important discoveries can be made by determining what the similarities are
between the two or more earthquakes in an Earthquake Pair and how they
differ from other earthquakes. And since the group of earthquake warning
signals that I am presently working with is being controlled by the same
forces that are responsible for earthquake triggering, significant
discoveries regarding earthquake triggering processes could be immediately
applied to forecasting efforts.
One of the reasons that geologists have not yet taken an interest in
this particular effort could be because it is heavily reliant on celestial
mechanics. And most geology researchers appear to me to prefer to focus on
measuring forces within the ground. I presently suspect that astronomers
would be a more likely group to take an interest in this science at first.
And I am planning to contact some of them about that.
#4; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:25:00 GMT
- "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:pmXAe.9096$aY6.3897.python.itags.org.newsread1.news.atl.earthl ink.net...
> "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:7%UAe.4148$BK1.174.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.pas.earthli nk.net...
>> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>> news:upBAe.1915$oZ.930.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
>> > "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>> > news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
>> >> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
>> >> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
>> What observational data are used?
>> What are the sources of that observational data?
>> How are those sources accessed?
>> Is there a database to hold historical plus current data?
>> If so, is it centralized or distributed?
>>
>> The project might be of interest if the data sources are
>> rich enough, complete enough, and current enough.
>>
> July 12, 2005
> Thanks for the response and questions.
> The following are my personal opinions on this.
> Briefly, the amount of data available for this type of effort is
> virtually limitless. And more of those data than most people could even
> deal with can be obtained for free.
I guess my question was not specific enough.
What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data.
The exact data sets you used.
> You don't have to build a new laboratory filled with expensive equipment.
> A reasonably powerful computer,
> Access to the Internet,
> At least some knowledge of science
> Some computer programming ability
> And a little imagination
I'm a retired physicist with a great deal of experience in data
transformation, verification and analysis. Also plenty of computers.
Fast internet connection.
> Are all that are required.
I have all those things.
> Researchers have been attempting to do this type of work for
> probably
> as far back as we have historical records. The reason that previous
> efforts
> that I am aware of have not been successful is because two key discoveries
> needed to be made. They are referred to on my 90-05.html Web page as the
> "Gravity Point" and "Earthquake Triggering Symmetry." Now that those
> discoveries have been made the door should be open to tremendously rapid
> advances in our understanding of how and why earthquakes occur and how to
> forecast them.
References please, I found some simple description, but no
mathematics or references to the data sets used or the equations
you used to do your analysis. Point me to that stuff.
> Much of this research could be easily done by computer programmers.
> You don't need to be a geophysicist. If the data you are generating look
> statistically significant then they are probably important whether or not
> you actually understand the geophysical theories behind them.
No problem understanding the physics (geo or otherwise).
No problem writing software to do the analyses.
Might even be fun.
> To actually forecast earthquakes using the procedure I have
> developed
> you need both warning signal data and earthquake data along with some
> ocean
> tide and Solid Earth Tide data. But one of the really great parts of this
> particular research project is the fact that many of the basic discoveries
> can be made by simply comparing earthquakes with one another. You don't
> need any warning signal data at all. And there is certainly no shortage
> of
> earthquake data!
Yes, I understand all that.
Where are the data sets?
Where is the description of the "procedure"?
URLs would be nice, journal article references are ok.
> At my Web site there is a discussion of a concept called "Earthquake
> Pairs." They are two or more earthquakes which were apparently triggered
> in
> the same manner. My data indicate that the two highly destructive 1998
> earthquakes in Afghanistan would represent an Earthquake Pair. And the
> two
> highly destructive 1999 earthquakes in Turkey would represent another
> pair.
> Important discoveries can be made by determining what the similarities are
> between the two or more earthquakes in an Earthquake Pair and how they
> differ from other earthquakes. And since the group of earthquake warning
> signals that I am presently working with is being controlled by the same
> forces that are responsible for earthquake triggering, significant
> discoveries regarding earthquake triggering processes could be immediately
> applied to forecasting efforts.
I would rather do my own data analysis, but for me to do that
there must be published data sets, that I can use.
Doing the various coorelations, power spectra, convolutions is easy.
So what is needed is the data sets, and the specific things you think
make prediction possible. Then I can test those things, along with
others that I might find interesting.
> One of the reasons that geologists have not yet taken an interest in
> this particular effort could be because it is heavily reliant on celestial
> mechanics. And most geology researchers appear to me to prefer to focus
> on
> measuring forces within the ground. I presently suspect that astronomers
> would be a more likely group to take an interest in this science at first.
> And I am planning to contact some of them about that.
So point me to the equations then.
Doing some analysis sounds like fun.
Celestial mechanics is no problem, easy stuff.
There is a copy of Bowditch on the shelf over there.
I know a good astrologer. Also several astronomers.
But which exact data sets did you use?
--
... Hank
http://home.earthlink.net/~horedson
http://home.earthlink.net/~w0rli
#5; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:26:00 GMT
- "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:1vYAe.2575$dU3.2553.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.pas.earthl ink.net...
> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> news:pmXAe.9096$aY6.3897.python.itags.org.newsread1.news.atl.earthl ink.net...
> > "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
> > news:7%UAe.4148$BK1.174.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.pas.earthli nk.net...
> >> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> >> news:upBAe.1915$oZ.930.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
> >> > "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> >> > news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
> >> >> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> >> >> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> I guess my question was not specific enough.
> What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data.
> The exact data sets you used.
July 13, 2005
Thanks again for the comments and interest.
The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to
all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some of
the important URLs.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html
That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the
forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early
Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file
versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am
using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth of
that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files
then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them along.
Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago said
that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other
operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html
Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting
method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that
128.html Web page.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with some
information regarding how to interpret them.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html
That Web page contains some "Help" information with details regarding
things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to generate
data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative
to the J2000 reference system.
You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that
information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem
for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And
unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ...
Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the
multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one
thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply
trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a
project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc.
has been encouraging.
#6; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:27:00 GMT
- "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:2OeBe.2928$oZ.770.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
> "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:1vYAe.2575$dU3.2553.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.pas.earthl ink.net...
>> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>> news:pmXAe.9096$aY6.3897.python.itags.org.newsread1.news.atl.earthl ink.net...
>> > "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
>> > news:7%UAe.4148$BK1.174.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.pas.earthli nk.net...
>> >> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>> >> news:upBAe.1915$oZ.930.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
>> >> > "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>> >> > news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
>> >> >> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
>> >> >> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
>> I guess my question was not specific enough.
>> What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data.
>> The exact data sets you used.
> July 13, 2005
> Thanks again for the comments and interest.
> The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to
> all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some
> of
> the important URLs.
> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html
> That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the
> forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early
> Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file
> versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am
> using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth
> of
> that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files
> then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them
> along.
> Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago
> said
> that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other
> operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc.
> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html
> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html
> Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting
> method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that
> 128.html Web page.
I found no equations there, nor any links to the original data sources.
> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
> That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with
> some
> information regarding how to interpret them.
Did not find any information on the source of the data.
> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html
> That Web page contains some "Help" information with details
> regarding
> things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to
> generate
> data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative
> to the J2000 reference system.
> You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that
> information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem
> for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And
> unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ...
Everything looked fairly obvious, except that there did not seem
to be any reference to the source of the datasets.
> Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the
> multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one
> thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply
> trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a
> project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc.
> has been encouraging.
Perhaps I was not clear enough in my previous posts.
I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did
YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets.
In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.
--
... Hank
http://home.earthlink.net/~horedson
http://home.earthlink.net/~w0rli
#7; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:28:00 GMT
- "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:6DhBe.3077$dU3.691.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.pas.earthli nk.net...
> >> >> > "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
> >> >> > news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
> >> >> >> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> >> >> >> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did
> YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets.
> In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.
July 14, 2005
Hi Hank,
I have another important project that I need to focus on at the
moment and unfortunately cannot yet spend too much time on this one. The
purpose of the original post was simply to determine if there were any
people interested in this proposed project. And your responses and others
indicate that there are.
Detailed information regarding the forecasting program can be found
on the following Web page:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html
Demonstration versions of the data files you are interested in plus
an early, fully operational version of the Perl language data processing
program itself can be found in the following files:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip
That program contains the following equations which do most of the
important work:
$londiff = 2**(1 + (abs($dblonval - $testlonval)/3.9));
$probvalue = $testsigstren*$testweight*(10 - $londiff);
If you download all of the files and follow the ReadMe.txt
instructions for how to organize a directory where the files can be stored
and run, then if you have Perl running on your computer the ETDPROG.pl
program should run okay under Windows XP and fairly well under Windows 98.
Other operating systems probably need to have some adjustments made to the
ETDPROG.pl file.
The files that I myself actually use are too large to store at that
Web site. As far as obtaining the original data, each file is a composite
of a number of different types of data. For instance, the main earthquake
data file contains actual earthquake data (mostly NEIS) and specially
processed sun, moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide data. At the moment,
the complete files including the EM signal data file have to be obtained by
e-mail from me (no charge). An important goal of this project is to have
all of them stored at a Web site for downloads. Also, I collect the
EM signal data myself. But if this project ever gets off the ground
those types of data will hopefully become available for free from
many sources around the world.
Finally, remember as I said earlier, I have been working on this
project for 15 years. And it covers a lot of territory. A detailed
discussion of it would fill a small book!
#8; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:29:00 GMT
- On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
<edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
>COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
<sigh> here we go again...
EDG is not a computer programmer, nor is he a geologist...
The best guess seems to be that he is he is crackpot, often going from group
to group espousing some sort of knowledge and asking for people to forward
his articles to government, schools and other professional bodies with a
demand that public monies be giving to him to support his "research".
A few years ago he started begging for programming help to process these
"signals" he has been looking for... (odd he has never explained what the
exactly these signals really are.
>Posted July 11, 2005
>My main earthquake forecasting Web page is:
>http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
>Newsgroup Readers: If you circulate copies of this report to groups of
>computer programmers at different universities etc. around the world then
>they might find the subject matter to be interesting.
or that might classify you just as EDG is classified, KOOK or Crackpot
>The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.
>THE GOAL OF THIS REPORT
> This is part of an effort to get some idea regarding how many
>computer programmers and other researchers around the world might be
>interested in participating in a project aimed at developing life saving
>earthquake forecasting computer programs.
> That effort is not presently underway. And I don't know when or if
>it will get started. I am simply attempting to determine if other people
>believe that large numbers of volunteers would be interested in working on
>such a project or if there would instead be little interest in it. That
>information would be helpful for developing a plan for establishing a Web
>site where the project would be centered. Personnel running the following
>Web site have volunteered to make their site available for such an effort.
Look at this for all his effort over the past few years...
>But nothing has gotten underway so far.
--
Ak'toh'di
#9; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:30:00 GMT
- On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "Hank Oredson"
<horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote:
>"edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>news:2OeBe.2928$oZ.770.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
>> "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
>> news:1vYAe.2575$dU3.2553.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.pas.earthl ink.net...
>>> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>>> news:pmXAe.9096$aY6.3897.python.itags.org.newsread1.news.atl.earthl ink.net...
>>> > "Hank Oredson" <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote in message
>>> > news:7%UAe.4148$BK1.174.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.pas.earthli nk.net...
>>> >> "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>>> >> news:upBAe.1915$oZ.930.python.itags.org.newsread2.news.atl.earthlin k.net...
>>> >> > "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
>>> >> > news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
>>> >> >> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
>>> >> >> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
>>
>>> I guess my question was not specific enough.
>>> What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data.
>>> The exact data sets you used.
>>
>> July 13, 2005
>>
>> Thanks again for the comments and interest.
>>
>> The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to
>> all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some
>> of
>> the important URLs.
>>
>> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html
>>
>> That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the
>> forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early
>> Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file
>> versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am
>> using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth
>> of
>> that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files
>> then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them
>> along.
>>
>> Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago
>> said
>> that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other
>> operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc.
>>
>> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html
>> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html
>>
>> Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting
>> method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that
>> 128.html Web page.
>I found no equations there, nor any links to the original data sources.
>> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
>>
>> That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with
>> some
>> information regarding how to interpret them.
>Did not find any information on the source of the data.
>> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html
>>
>> That Web page contains some "Help" information with details
>> regarding
>> things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to
>> generate
>> data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative
>> to the J2000 reference system.
>>
>> You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that
>> information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem
>> for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And
>> unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ...
>Everything looked fairly obvious, except that there did not seem
>to be any reference to the source of the datasets.
>> Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the
>> multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one
>> thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply
>> trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a
>> project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc.
>> has been encouraging.
>Perhaps I was not clear enough in my previous posts.
>I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did
>YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets.
>In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.
There isn't any "data set"
There are no "formula"...
There is only EGD
Crackpot.
http://www.crank.net/geology.html
Look down to the middle of the page E.D.G.
Listed as "Cranky"
--
Ak'toh'di
#10; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:31:00 GMT
- Hi All--
Bob Officer wrote:
> On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
> <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote:
> >PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> >COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> <sigh> here we go again...
> EDG is not a computer programmer, nor is he a geologist...
> The best guess seems to be that he is he is crackpot, often going from group
> to group espousing some sort of knowledge and asking for people to forward
> his articles to government, schools and other professional bodies with a
> demand that public monies be giving to him to support his "research".
Well, I guess this is in line with how I persist in seeing the Subject:
header. _Every_ time I look at it, my brain sees "Re: Earthquake
Fornicating Program".
Brings a whole new dimension to "Did the earth move for you too,
honey?", doesn't it?
Metta,
<the-devil-made-me>-ly y'rs,
Ivan
--------------
Ivan Van Laningham
God N Locomotive Works
http://www.foretec.com/python/works...roceedings.html
Army Signal Corps: Cu Chi, Class of '70
Author: Teach Yourself Python in 24 Hours
#11; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:32:00 GMT
- "Bob Officer" <bobofficers.python.itags.org.invalid.net> wrote in message
news:j9und1dk1cl08bg2tum967h974lrf656oc__35091.569 4762536$1121713266$gmane$org.python.itags.org.4ax.com...
[snip over 100 lines that should have been snipped before]
>>In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.
> There isn't any "data set"
> There are no "formula"...
> There is only EGD
> Crackpot.
> http://www.crank.net/geology.html
> Look down to the middle of the page E.D.G.
> Listed as "Cranky"
I figured as much, and appreciate the info, but PLEASE learn to snip so
people can find your meat easier.
#12; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:33:00 GMT
- "Bob Officer" <bobofficers.python.itags.org.invalid.net> wrote in message
news:83und1pv3du700os4oug71i6ks242ojqfp.python.itags.org.4ax.com...
> On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "edgrsprj"
> <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote:
> >PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> >COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> demand that public monies be giving to him to support his "research".
People around the world can download and use my data and computer programs
for free, subject to normal copyright terms. For example, they cannot claim
that they are the original developers of the computer programs.
Where this person gets the stuff that he posts to Newsgroups is beyond me.
#13; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:34:00 GMT
- On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, "Hank Oredson"
<horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote:
>In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.
Hank, with respect ...
Posted to nine newsgroups; fluffy responses when you ask specific
questions; evasion when you repeatedly ask for real data ... I regret
to say, YHBT.
Lemming
--
Curiosity *may* have killed Schrodinger's cat.
#14; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:35:00 GMT
- "Lemming" <thiswillbounce.python.itags.org.bumblbee.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:7qage1h9vve4ba0ub0ka3fuo4nph7j3qv0.python.itags.org.4ax.com...
> On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, "Hank Oredson"
> <horedson.python.itags.org.earthlink.net> wrote:
>>In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.
> Hank, with respect ...
> Posted to nine newsgroups; fluffy responses when you ask specific
> questions; evasion when you repeatedly ask for real data ... I regret
> to say, YHBT.
> Lemming
> --
> Curiosity *may* have killed Schrodinger's cat.
Why yes, your post was much more informative and interesting.
Do you have the EM dataset?
--
... Hank
http://home.earthlink.net/~horedson
http://home.earthlink.net/~w0rli
#15; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:36:00 GMT
- "edgrsprj" <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:D7qAe.21003$eM6.9503.python.itags.org.newsread3.news.atl.earth link.net...
> PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
> COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT
> Posted July 11, 2005
> My main earthquake forecasting Web page is:
> http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
EARTHQUAKE AND TORNADO FORECASTING PROGRAMS
Posted by E.D.G. June 13, 2006
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.
On July 11, 2005 I posted a report to a number of Internet Newsgroups
including sci.geo.earthquakes stating that I was considering creating a Web
site where researchers around the world could post notes and develop
computer programs associated with the science of earthquake forecasting.
This present report is an update on that project.
The effort is still underway. The present plan is to try to get the
proposed Web site organized for the science of earthquake forecasting and
then expand it to include other sciences such as tornado forecasting and
different areas of medicine. The ultimate goal is to have discussion areas
there for as many of the problems which threaten the health and lives of
people around the world as possible.
Professional and amateur computer programmers would probably be heavily
involved with this work.
Since that first report was posted last July I have been able to establish
what looks like it will be a stable source of funding for the effort. It
should at least enable me to continue working on the project and pay for
things such as Web site rental fees etc. And I am presently working with
two groups of legal people who are attempting to create a formal
organization through which the actual funding and Web site operation etc.
will take place. How fast this effort will progress is at the moment
largely up to those legal groups. One of them is supposed to create the
necessary legal documents. The other will be doing the filing with
government agencies etc. Unfortunately, since I am not a major client of
either group they are doing the work when they are not busy with other
clients.
A formal legal organization intended to be an introductory version of this
new organization has existed since 2002. But it took my legal people about
eight months to get all of the paperwork done and filed. The present effort
has been underway for a month. Hopefully it will not take another seven
months to finish.
PROPOSED WEB SITE
A number of years ago I worked with a Web site development expert to create
a discussion group for earthquake forecasting. I believe that it eventually
evolved into the two following discussion groups. The original Web site
expert is no longer involved.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/earthwaves
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html
For this proposed Web site I would probably try to use a discussion board
which would be a highly modified version of that second board. And it will
take a fair amount of computer programming to create the new version. The
problem with the existing discussion board control computer program is that
it is does not offer the necessary posting options. When researchers post a
note to such a board, rules have to be in place regarding what types of
notes other people can post in response. That is an absolute necessity.
And the structure of that present board does not contain those types of
rules within the control computer program itself.
More details regarding that proposed Web site can be found in the following
report that I submitted for a United Nations disaster mitigation related
discussion back in July of 2004:
http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr-dialogue/t3-dialogue.htm#34
Based on their starting dates etc. I believe that my report might have
already led to the creation of the following Web sites:
Keep your fingers crossed. If the effort to create this proposed Web site
is successful then it might assist researchers in quite a few areas of
science and medicine around the world with significantly accelerating their
lifesaving efforts.
#16; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:37:00 GMT
- [snip]
I look forward to a day when meteorology has more to do with precise
models than models, although I'm all for Russian-style delivery of such
data. I forecast that a lot of people will be surprised by the weather
today, as they are categorical idiots, as is the OP. frank
#17; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:38:00 GMT
- Frank Silvermann wrote:
> [snip]
> I look forward to a day when meteorology has more to do with precise
> models than models, although I'm all for Russian-style delivery of such
> data. I forecast that a lot of people will be surprised by the weather
> today, as they are categorical idiots, as is the OP. frank
Oh for a newsreader that can eliminate all such ugly excessively
cross-posted articles lacking follow-ups. PLONK thread is the only
remaining answer.
--
Some informative links:
news:news.announce.newusers
http://www.geocities.com/nnqweb/
http://www.catb.org/~esr/faqs/smart-questions.html
http://www.caliburn.nl/topposting.html
http://www.netmeister.org/news/learn2quote.html
#18; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:39:00 GMT
- CBFalconer wrote:
> Frank Silvermann wrote:
>>[snip]
>>I look forward to a day when meteorology has more to do with precise
>>models than models, although I'm all for Russian-style delivery of such
>>data. I forecast that a lot of people will be surprised by the weather
>>today, as they are categorical idiots, as is the OP. frank
>
> Oh for a newsreader that can eliminate all such ugly excessively
> cross-posted articles lacking follow-ups. PLONK thread is the only
> remaining answer.
And oh for a newsgroup where people will just do the plonking without
feeling a necessity to add fuel to the fire ... ?
--
Steve Holden +44 150 684 7255 +1 800 494 3119
Holden Web LLC/Ltd http://www.holdenweb.com
Love me, love my blog http://holdenweb.blogspot.com
Recent Ramblings http://del.icio.us/steve.holden
#19; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:40:00 GMT
- In article <448EFE0D.3B2D968B.python.itags.org.yahoo.com>, CBFalconer wrote:
> Oh for a newsreader that can eliminate all such ugly excessively
> cross-posted articles lacking follow-ups. PLONK thread is the only
> remaining answer.
See my reply posted to alt.disasters.misc and
sci.geo.earthquakes for an alternative strategy. But yes, cross-posting
like that is highly irritating, which makes the actual purpose of the
original posting highly suspect.
I don't know which of the comp.lang groups you're coming from,
but since any of them could probably be used to write cross-post
filtering code ... I'll leave the lot in.
--
Aidan Karley, FGS
Aberdeen, Scotland
Written at Wed, 14 Jun 2006 08:14 +0100, but posted later.
#20; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:41:00 GMT
- >
> Oh for a newsreader that can eliminate all such ugly excessively
> cross-posted articles lacking follow-ups. PLONK thread is the only
> remaining answer.
Posted by E.D.G. June 14, 2006
In my opinion, even moderated Internet Newsgroups cannot provide the
necessary control for adequately protected scientific communications. I
have in mind the development of a sophisticated Web site based Internet
Bulletin Board which past experiences indicate to me should work. The Web
site running that bulletin board should be of interest to computer
programmers around the globe regardless of what programming language they
are using.
#21; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:42:00 GMT
- edgrsprj <edgrsprj.python.itags.org.ix.netcom.com> wrote:
> > Oh for a newsreader that can eliminate all such ugly excessively
> > cross-posted articles lacking follow-ups. PLONK thread is the only
> > remaining answer.
> Posted by E.D.G. June 14, 2006
> In my opinion, even moderated Internet Newsgroups cannot provide the
> necessary control for adequately protected scientific communications. I
> have in mind the development of a sophisticated Web site based Internet
> Bulletin Board which past experiences indicate to me should work. The Web
> site running that bulletin board should be of interest to computer
> programmers around the globe regardless of what programming language they
> are using.
Wow. That is an impressive display of... ummm... understanding. :-)
Yes, I guess plonk thread will have to do.
(My news server wouldn't even accept this as a followup until I trimmed
a few of the groups.)
--
Richard Maine | Good judgment comes from experience;
email: my first.last at org.domain| experience comes from bad judgment.
org: nasa, domain: gov | -- Mark Twain
#22; Thu, 27 Dec 2007 21:43:00 GMT